Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T01:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 01:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 01:20 UTC
Open price
$63,648.80
Close price
$63,486.46

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63648.800000 and closed at 63486.460000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.6
Opens
Jun 12 · 00:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 01:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 01:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 00:15 ↓ 00:30 ↑ 00:45 ↓ 01:00 ↓ — now 01:15 ↓ 01:30 ↑ 01:45 ↑ 02:00 ↑ 02:15 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 01:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T01:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 01:20:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
00:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.453 +4.7% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_673nmr8ZwrGOh4XnV1ePEqxB
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 00:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 01:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.6%
Down 52.4%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63527.9405 sigma=111.7823 z=1.0989 p_up=0.4760

Commitment hash
80320b1165029890b07e81edcb498e36b18226865ecf54dc2cc6e319b49532df
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
00:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.505 -0.5% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_PG178AgpDReXu4qLVeYNrJRd
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 00:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 01:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.23%
Down 49.77%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.0981 edge=0.0029 sigma_short=0.001662 sigma_long=0.002332 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5023

Commitment hash
21e5057208d80db00f3aacaf1ef8cc2fed505086f2f2df5d5b8d60b4fd5a88a3
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
00:50:00
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.506 -0.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_zgjx25nXwLnpHd1JDOd0yZq1
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 00:50:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 01:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.29%
Down 49.71%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000037 sigma=0.001657 score=0.0981 p_up=0.5029

Commitment hash
914edfa515c16f176bd6f6d1333dbd1412a798a963dccf030fa2309156387e1d