Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T23:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 23:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 23:20 UTC
Open price
$63,502.00
Close price
$63,463.92

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63502.000000 and closed at 63463.920000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.7
Opens
Jun 12 · 22:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 23:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 23:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 22:15 ↑ 22:30 ↓ 22:45 ↓ 23:00 ↓ — now 23:15 ↓ 23:30 ↑ 23:45 ↑ 00:00 ↑ 00:15 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 23:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T23:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 23:20:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
22:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.454 +4.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_0ZYdGLNvozOETOdgw4nX59rO
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 22:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 23:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.65%
Down 52.35%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000295 sigma=0.001225 score=-1.0512 p_up=0.4765

Commitment hash
164f0ecbe5509f48c503b28bfa3434f66fa4ff89c58f36c8aae1d455cf3d5a21
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
22:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.463 +3.7% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_0MeQn9qmwgznCPmYoYl4kr65
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 22:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 23:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.12%
Down 51.88%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.0512 edge=-0.0235 sigma_short=0.001314 sigma_long=0.002488 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4812

Commitment hash
d3f2b2c34c4f343663bd02e2ca0deaeeeb01aed5ceeb44c46125ea7a03f7b0a2
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
22:50:02
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.545 -4.5% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_g7xznkbOwq29c033VmELRlWQ
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 22:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 23:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.21%
Down 47.79%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63627.8525 sigma=127.4507 z=-0.9405 p_up=0.5221

Commitment hash
743808f64abb8ed7177a8889560846ed626427e0c56badadc00e7a1dc3cb9541