Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-13T23:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 23:45 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 00:05 UTC
Open price
$64,454.02
Close price
$64,458.01

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 64454.020000 and closed at 64458.010000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.1
Opens
Jun 13 · 23:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 13 · 23:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 00:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 23:00 ↓ 23:15 ↑ 23:30 ↑ 23:45 ↑ — now 00:00 ↓ 00:15 ↑ 00:30 ↑ 00:45 ↑ 01:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 00:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-13T23:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 00:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 13
23:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.474 +2.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_PG178AgpDReXuAYkVeYNrJRd
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 23:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 23:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.32%
Down 48.68%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000152 sigma=0.001404 score=0.4722 p_up=0.5132

Commitment hash
e1c064a9cd6a80e6351ffccd22b489dd5d4cab5cadffa91482cac8aca90c0d8a
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 13
23:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.491 +0.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_zKd58baJDbpLia6rwy92enrk
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 23:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 23:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.46%
Down 49.54%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.4722 edge=0.0132 sigma_short=0.001766 sigma_long=0.001378 w=0.3500 p_up=0.5046

Commitment hash
654ccf1b2b1c45698da733e8937b1f849d89250a1c891b982943bdb04b2a024a
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 13
23:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.544 -4.4% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_KNxe1m9koa6GCylYwW628Xz0
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 23:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 23:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.84%
Down 52.16%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=64340.1175 sigma=123.1476 z=0.9060 p_up=0.4784

Commitment hash
11c68e21f1d650d32d1d30c55a17e5150c40ad9056a68b2edbefa886d43a4751