Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:1h:2026-06-15T03:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 03:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 04:05 UTC
Open price
$65,472.01
Close price
$65,927.10

Binance BTCUSDT 1h candle opened at 65472.010000 and closed at 65927.100000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.0
Opens
Jun 15 · 02:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 03:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 04:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Series 00:00 ↓ 01:00 ↓ 02:00 ↓ 03:00 ↑ — now 04:00 ↓ 05:00 ↑ 06:00 ↓ 07:00 ↓ 08:00 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 04:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-15T03:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 04:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
02:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.459 +4.1% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_dnazAerPwl9PcKMvVb97G5lM
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 02:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 03:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.08%
Down 47.92%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.001005 sigma=0.005113 score=0.8564 p_up=0.5208

Commitment hash
3bf1953a24c0932ba2c0a576a61c5854a31f8b623a97adad914cf571bf97ab62
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
02:35:03
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.486 +1.4% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_zgjx25nXwLnpHAxNDOd0yZq1
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 02:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 03:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.73%
Down 49.27%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.8564 edge=0.0208 sigma_short=0.006400 sigma_long=0.003778 w=0.3500 p_up=0.5073

Commitment hash
73029123452f39731cfaa71a9a05435323d8703c24436219dc15ff6465f50a6b
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
02:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.557 -5.7% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_zq7L80nkoMp4iXLqDEjaK1Zl
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 02:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 03:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.25%
Down 52.75%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=64522.2055 sigma=636.5284 z=1.5754 p_up=0.4725

Commitment hash
18acaf2294f1080d5683be77032ff1b42e2b4085b58976cca3b9cebcb1b2193e