Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:1h:2026-06-15T09:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 09:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 10:05 UTC
Open price
$65,662.00
Close price
$65,596.86

Binance BTCUSDT 1h candle opened at 65662.000000 and closed at 65596.860000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.4
Opens
Jun 15 · 08:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 09:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 10:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Series 06:00 ↓ 07:00 ↓ 08:00 ↓ 09:00 ↓ — now 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 10:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-15T09:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 10:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
08:35:03
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.457 +4.3% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_G7zbNOMWVvp7iEjKoE9P1vBd
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 08:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 09:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.82%
Down 52.18%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=64898.8530 sigma=839.6038 z=0.9241 p_up=0.4782

Commitment hash
0056384607329e27cd5cfdda8b2d7388fc98ef61ffe1cbc1e9290e3287ccd166
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
08:35:03
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.524 -2.4% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_BlAyv3kzDQm0tEdkDWqReg9n
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 08:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 09:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.17%
Down 48.83%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.8831 edge=0.0212 sigma_short=0.003348 sigma_long=0.004011 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5117

Commitment hash
b908e70eb596d9ddc969a1e49c95485bc212754a4517e86eb710acf6782b58fc
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
08:35:03
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.543 -4.3% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_904kZMgdDE6gC2nKoBnQaqEe
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 08:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 09:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.12%
Down 47.88%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.001091 sigma=0.005384 score=0.8831 p_up=0.5212

Commitment hash
fe169e3a92024fa2866949c2a005c2856f860d0c6fef325a5255fad7958414e7