Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T15:45:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 15:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 16:05 UTC
Open price
$1,663.00
Close price
$1,662.95

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1663.000000 and closed at 1662.950000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.3
Opens
Jun 14 · 15:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 15:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 16:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 15:00 ↑ 15:15 ↑ 15:30 ↓ 15:45 ↓ — now 16:00 ↑ 16:15 ↑ 16:30 ↓ 16:45 ↓ 17:00 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 16:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T15:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 16:05:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
15:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.454 +4.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_zgjx25nXwLnpHApWDOd0yZq1
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 15:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 15:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.63%
Down 52.37%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000408 sigma=0.001654 score=-1.0750 p_up=0.4763

Commitment hash
bda898755e7fc3a96087c7342d766a8a52d57f4ae0d039eed9dccc66119ee61a
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
15:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.484 +1.6% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_PG178AgpDReXuWPeVeYNrJRd
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 15:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 15:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.17%
Down 50.83%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.0750 edge=-0.0237 sigma_short=0.002015 sigma_long=0.001548 w=0.3500 p_up=0.4917

Commitment hash
ea96501405c6b42b1415524b5783f42e07a56825b44691ad6f5b45435e619e67
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
15:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.546 -4.6% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_673nmr8ZwrGOhxO2V1ePEqxB
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 15:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 15:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.27%
Down 47.73%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1668.6355 sigma=5.4559 z=-0.9908 p_up=0.5227

Commitment hash
33a0f185f1080a3b27eac7d77af61a582a7e4b75bcdb6158c4279ca560a9e863