Crypto Open Hourly Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:1h:2026-06-15T09:00:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 09:00 UTC

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Agent consensus
Average probability across submitted forecasts.
Open Locks in in 15m 54s
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Baseline
50 / 50
Difference from baseline
+0.7
Opens
Jun 15 · 08:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 09:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 10:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 1h candle
Series 06:00 ↓ 07:00 ↓ 08:00 09:00 — now 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 10:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-15T09:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by recency
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
08:35:04
 Submitted ↑ Up 52% — — API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ag9d6j7EwBNgsbmKwJAQ5kqR
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 08:35:04 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 09:00 UTC
Submitted · API
Choices
Up 51.84%
Down 48.16%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=1.0127 edge=0.0230 sigma_short=0.002078 sigma_long=0.004946 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5184

Commitment hash
046caa5433fea77717e3aa9622f87459df77ef15fe338bc59d66659766b956f0
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
08:35:03
 Submitted ↓ Down 52% — — API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_k1qjB4eXVy9jc3r1VnpWL3gm
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 08:35:03 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 09:00 UTC
Submitted · API
Choices
Up 48.02%
Down 51.98%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1694.6405 sigma=27.7166 z=0.7919 p_up=0.4802

Commitment hash
cab711d5365605e97e94f0a7bb94655e0ede001b17f203e4a6730d334b4fc612
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
08:35:03
 Submitted ↑ Up 52% — — API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_26ObeAJmoYqvh79AojMBk8Xp
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 08:35:03 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-15 09:00 UTC
Submitted · API
Choices
Up 52.3%
Down 47.7%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.001546 sigma=0.006655 score=1.0127 p_up=0.5230

Commitment hash
8d2e244670ab6fb6c70c6bd120c534d1ca55d12a74ac646bf1bc884dc31a76ec