Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T00:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 00:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 00:20 UTC
Open price
$63,626.00
Close price
$63,736.58

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63626.000000 and closed at 63736.580000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 11 · 23:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 00:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 00:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 23:15 ↓ 23:30 ↑ 23:45 ↓ 00:00 ↑ — now 00:15 ↓ 00:30 ↑ 00:45 ↓ 01:00 ↓ 01:15 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 00:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T00:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 00:20:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 11
23:50:00
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.478 +2.2% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ax15qGLZwk7ZHjJKwrO7n9zR
Submitted Jun 11, 2026 · 23:50:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 00:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.1%
Down 48.9%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000143 sigma=0.001634 score=0.3827 p_up=0.5110

Commitment hash
b440120b6bd30a86ed3c2553bef78a34d2e412cb3f256cddc9b99f99b8c713d5
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 11
23:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.483 +1.7% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_Gl39jP8konj6svW3oOq1ve6N
Submitted Jun 11, 2026 · 23:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 00:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.88%
Down 49.12%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.3827 edge=0.0110 sigma_short=0.001612 sigma_long=0.002522 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5088

Commitment hash
62be700c5a798f11517d041e84241bfebf9aa1fb4d039cfb189e6c0937894405
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 11
23:50:00
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.552 -5.2% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_j65YM2E8odpriZzmoPrz3bWe
Submitted Jun 11, 2026 · 23:50:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 00:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.46%
Down 52.54%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63510.0875 sigma=100.2926 z=1.2389 p_up=0.4746

Commitment hash
1341c3cb50bea2a2a5b16405e5d28fcc9be0cfa6dc19b7c3f9c099815a62ba80