Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T02:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 02:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 03:05 UTC
Open price
$63,635.98
Close price
$63,624.07

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63635.980000 and closed at 63624.070000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
50%
Difference from baseline
+0.1
Opens
Jun 12 · 02:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 02:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 03:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 02:00 ↑ 02:15 ↓ 02:30 ↑ 02:45 ↓ — now 03:00 ↓ 03:15 ↓ 03:30 ↑ 03:45 ↑ 04:00 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 03:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T02:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 03:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
02:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.492 +0.8% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_40Q536YODN09H4z0wRWvqpr8
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 02:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 02:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.61%
Down 50.39%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63541.6280 sigma=109.3976 z=0.1312 p_up=0.4961

Commitment hash
55d400beebdb1edaa81f06d7b4107c7c60d02bf29578f261fb9cf316a2c7681e
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
02:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.502 -0.2% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_4BXNaeEbo16gC4m6wkOy0xjq
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 02:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 02:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.08%
Down 49.92%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.0489 edge=0.0015 sigma_short=0.001889 sigma_long=0.002392 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5008

Commitment hash
c99f2e7f4e25cbbaf6fa6bb2152a9597f5732b6bd51fc206ae3fa0b396dd6290
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
02:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.503 -0.3% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_apB6lzPrV3mgtPj7oXAeKd4v
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 02:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 02:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.15%
Down 49.85%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000020 sigma=0.001772 score=0.0489 p_up=0.5015

Commitment hash
a5834f0d0c1fa079f60b53bcc7d5c55179109ed9c3d956abc89f2658950d32dc