Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T03:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 03:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 03:20 UTC
Open price
$63,624.07
Close price
$63,531.00

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63624.070000 and closed at 63531.000000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.3
Opens
Jun 12 · 02:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 03:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 03:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 02:15 ↓ 02:30 ↑ 02:45 ↓ 03:00 ↓ — now 03:15 ↓ 03:30 ↑ 03:45 ↑ 04:00 ↓ 04:15 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 03:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T03:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 03:20:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
02:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.461 +3.9% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_xpn3ZLedwX3YF1QJor79GXqN
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 02:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 03:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.01%
Down 51.99%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63546.8275 sigma=111.2712 z=0.8012 p_up=0.4801

Commitment hash
a36d5a4d6c5a3af86a7a08cce47d951f8642d08e1190105bf8d89b48c5c51f43
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
02:50:02
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.508 -0.8% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_K0YXjLbzom6xC5m1w3qMl598
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 02:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 03:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.38%
Down 49.62%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.2335 edge=0.0069 sigma_short=0.001847 sigma_long=0.002396 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5038

Commitment hash
6f2506409e4d2a09b13796e17d9f00ae91a96e25ef4eabe5737a77581a086e29
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
02:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.514 -1.4% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_L5Xdpj9Zw2WguBd9VzBAYvMJ
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 02:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 03:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.69%
Down 49.31%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000096 sigma=0.001792 score=0.2335 p_up=0.5069

Commitment hash
12a0890b3384dc2119f9817a817c8ec169586ceb2e4465702069e97082c8a409