Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T04:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 04:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 05:05 UTC
Open price
$63,721.26
Close price
$63,700.00

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63721.260000 and closed at 63700.000000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.5
Opens
Jun 12 · 04:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 04:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 05:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 04:00 ↓ 04:15 ↑ 04:30 ↓ 04:45 ↓ — now 05:00 ↓ 05:15 ↑ 05:30 ↓ 05:45 ↓ 06:00 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 05:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T04:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 05:05:03 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
04:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.444 +5.6% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_PG178AgpDReXu4EvVeYNrJRd
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 04:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 04:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.11%
Down 52.89%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63564.8585 sigma=115.7633 z=2.0097 p_up=0.4711

Commitment hash
4371fbe32a64f54ba379ec3ba936dd39b1b24ee03f33b26c2b1a32e4b3efdf2c
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
04:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.510 -1.0% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_KNxe1m9koa6GCgeMwW628Xz0
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 04:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 04:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.51%
Down 49.49%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.3212 edge=0.0093 sigma_short=0.002044 sigma_long=0.001745 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5051

Commitment hash
e1f8bb0efd3e00addf69faccbfa43503872ba57711013a6b9c3efa0bf1a3c436
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
04:35:00
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.519 -1.9% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_673nmr8ZwrGOh4QKV1ePEqxB
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 04:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 04:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.93%
Down 49.07%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000135 sigma=0.001829 score=0.3212 p_up=0.5093

Commitment hash
b755826a0cf489bcab4170f1f87eb22fc4870b25dd3dfe3b25d55ace009b03ac