Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T06:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 06:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 06:20 UTC
Open price
$63,358.20
Close price
$63,304.35

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63358.200000 and closed at 63304.350000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 12 · 05:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 06:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 06:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 05:15 ↑ 05:30 ↓ 05:45 ↓ 06:00 ↓ — now 06:15 ↓ 06:30 ↓ 06:45 ↑ 07:00 ↑ 07:15 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 06:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T06:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 06:20:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
05:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.475 +2.5% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ax15qGLZwk7ZHjE6wrO7n9zR
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 05:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 06:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.74%
Down 51.26%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000206 sigma=0.002012 score=-0.4466 p_up=0.4874

Commitment hash
62dd55fe3f9b4d6050ba4ec8ad942ec19e8a0f01185bedbd2a3540ee2b931af0
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
05:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.486 +1.4% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_Gl39jP8konj6sve4oOq1ve6N
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 05:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 06:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.31%
Down 50.69%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.4466 edge=-0.0126 sigma_short=0.002113 sigma_long=0.001809 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4931

Commitment hash
ad909946bc4151f7efad43acd98159c076742cf1d6f726ad9297a6ee512d1e1a
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
05:50:02
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.550 -5.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_j65YM2E8odpriZyKoPrz3bWe
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 05:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 06:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.44%
Down 47.56%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63539.0610 sigma=122.1328 z=-1.1385 p_up=0.5244

Commitment hash
660a12744d5780a4552b0c467c25d84ac1de693a89af1fa6b05d31e225f6b3cc