Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T06:15:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 06:15 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 06:35 UTC
Open price
$63,304.35
Close price
$63,150.01

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63304.350000 and closed at 63150.010000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.5
Opens
Jun 12 · 06:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 06:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 06:35 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 05:30 ↓ 05:45 ↓ 06:00 ↓ 06:15 ↓ — now 06:30 ↓ 06:45 ↑ 07:00 ↑ 07:15 ↑ 07:30 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 06:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T06:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 06:35:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
06:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.486 +1.4% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_0ZYdGLNvozOETg7Pw4nX59rO
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 06:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 06:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.3%
Down 50.7%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000106 sigma=0.001939 score=-0.2393 p_up=0.4930

Commitment hash
ce18bf35eb251a3676e08757740fc7df30ac2041b488dad5559738bd5dd01a17
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
06:05:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.492 +0.8% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_0MeQn9qmwgznCvePoYl4kr65
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 06:05:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 06:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.61%
Down 50.39%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.2393 edge=-0.0070 sigma_short=0.002082 sigma_long=0.001802 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4961

Commitment hash
dee95530ae02b053e6b0a3b450b809c6378917e2e1508f9b97a90c81bf540beb
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
06:05:02
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.553 -5.3% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_g7xznkbOwq29cxezVmELRlWQ
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 06:05:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 06:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.6%
Down 47.4%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63524.5310 sigma=125.4540 z=-1.3258 p_up=0.5260

Commitment hash
69f0d9ea88b8149a1e2119195f044ab9fe8a04e9f67b5d54daf38ffd877af211