Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T16:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 16:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 16:20 UTC
Open price
$63,593.02
Close price
$63,861.34

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63593.020000 and closed at 63861.340000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.4
Opens
Jun 12 · 15:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 16:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 16:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 15:15 ↓ 15:30 ↓ 15:45 ↓ 16:00 ↑ — now 16:15 ↑ 16:30 ↓ 16:45 ↑ 17:00 ↓ 17:15 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 16:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T16:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 16:20:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
15:50:00
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.487 +1.3% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_A2vnyR7GwK96cAZjDZbz3kL6
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 15:50:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 16:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.68%
Down 49.32%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000163 sigma=0.003109 score=0.2290 p_up=0.5068

Commitment hash
02940953ee94a713ccd2f9bd27cc36198806c79d0dd0929115ff6e3f1c8127a2
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
15:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.495 +0.5% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ax15qGLZwk7ZHLlXwrO7n9zR
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 15:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 16:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.24%
Down 49.76%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.2290 edge=0.0068 sigma_short=0.004039 sigma_long=0.002558 w=0.3500 p_up=0.5024

Commitment hash
e955e54a4ae9516cf7ef9d21070fca5641464151605fbe8d9ec703718569167b
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
15:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.541 -4.1% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_MLpmeG97DG45SnQQolrWdgjb
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 15:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 16:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.98%
Down 52.02%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63658.8865 sigma=295.2473 z=0.8166 p_up=0.4798

Commitment hash
a03321502e014e73cfa850af6fa65849039a1bb1179f0302a531e0e98a079865