Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T15:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 15:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 15:50 UTC
Open price
$64,132.05
Close price
$63,900.00

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 64132.050000 and closed at 63900.000000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.0
Opens
Jun 12 · 15:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 15:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 15:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 14:45 ↑ 15:00 ↑ 15:15 ↓ 15:30 ↓ — now 15:45 ↓ 16:00 ↑ 16:15 ↑ 16:30 ↓ 16:45 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 15:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T15:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 15:50:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
15:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.442 +5.8% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_rQLBEm5WoP72Hkz4D9za01Y4
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 15:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 15:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.02%
Down 52.98%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63622.4250 sigma=268.0538 z=2.7964 p_up=0.4702

Commitment hash
85e0d3b6b340680de01d5d2cd2dd9be10d7b0138c2a58fc7de6d9602a0f0d6ea
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
15:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.516 -1.6% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_BE2kXa7Qo6ngHkXyoy18Alen
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 15:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 15:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.78%
Down 49.22%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.9581 edge=0.0223 sigma_short=0.003449 sigma_long=0.002415 w=0.3500 p_up=0.5078

Commitment hash
9e45d46f3783b23790a904c4b6ba58d2dcfd1977d899a0df1a3a55905b7b8ef0
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
15:20:00
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.546 -4.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_7B6ErGaLD5OgTRv1w5ylJzve
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 15:20:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 15:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.23%
Down 47.77%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000619 sigma=0.002818 score=0.9581 p_up=0.5223

Commitment hash
3035cd9b402ae57697d54eb962e5670b07b511bbc97ec8f2223ee98b2eeb8c95