Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T14:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 14:45 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 15:05 UTC
Open price
$63,504.60
Close price
$63,999.99

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63504.600000 and closed at 63999.990000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.9
Opens
Jun 12 · 14:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 14:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 15:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 14:00 ↑ 14:15 ↑ 14:30 ↓ 14:45 ↑ — now 15:00 ↑ 15:15 ↓ 15:30 ↓ 15:45 ↓ 16:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 15:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T14:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 15:05:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
14:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.510 -1.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_zgjx25nXwLnpHmkeDOd0yZq1
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 14:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 14:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.52%
Down 50.48%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63599.2825 sigma=202.2878 z=0.1617 p_up=0.4952

Commitment hash
35c5c55af95df8710ab9758afe580c81b4b39979f9b5753fef1ee39e27e415ea
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
14:35:03
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.515 -1.5% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_673nmr8ZwrGOh0mlV1ePEqxB
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 14:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 14:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.26%
Down 50.74%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.4823 edge=-0.0134 sigma_short=0.002324 sigma_long=0.001992 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4926

Commitment hash
c0897b9933cb7963d8ba17e3ace7171f791a67aa22c9104d3d36ce120625c4b2
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
14:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.527 -2.7% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_zq7L80nkoMp4ieElDEjaK1Zl
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 14:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 14:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.66%
Down 51.34%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000212 sigma=0.001916 score=-0.4823 p_up=0.4866

Commitment hash
473e7353c9e93940e7a63fd78076e12ba9fdf1b839ffde653d424803cac3fec6