Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T14:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 14:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 14:20 UTC
Open price
$63,229.10
Close price
$63,450.48

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63229.100000 and closed at 63450.480000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.1
Opens
Jun 12 · 13:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 14:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 14:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 13:15 ↓ 13:30 ↓ 13:45 ↑ 14:00 ↑ — now 14:15 ↑ 14:30 ↓ 14:45 ↑ 15:00 ↑ 15:15 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 14:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T14:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 14:20:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
13:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.442 +5.8% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_ZrAQgKBlDJnJHgqRD3j6Wdq1
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 13:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 14:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.97%
Down 47.03%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63624.1370 sigma=186.1716 z=-2.6112 p_up=0.5297

Commitment hash
94e00e30c74c88db17e9d7e362a845c52687a2a92a4c08ae7782fc03de116bc3
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
13:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.528 -2.8% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_mYpKb1MNDpy4TrYRo7Ak4L2e
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 13:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 14:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.61%
Down 51.39%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.6636 edge=-0.0174 sigma_short=0.001434 sigma_long=0.001987 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4861

Commitment hash
17a92e2f9e5b05baab83400f557b7cf30fb648864304c33e361ffefb1741f763
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
13:50:00
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.535 -3.5% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_xYnBL4N1wZNysyryw7kZGzPE
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 13:50:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 14:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.26%
Down 51.74%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000277 sigma=0.001817 score=-0.6636 p_up=0.4826

Commitment hash
f8e19e7a412e5dc75f96c99478750da83eedf803ef4bb1d95e9a62f89e5190fb