Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T13:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 13:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 13:50 UTC
Open price
$63,407.99
Close price
$63,138.01

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63407.990000 and closed at 63138.010000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.6
Opens
Jun 12 · 13:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 13:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 13:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 12:45 ↑ 13:00 ↑ 13:15 ↓ 13:30 ↓ — now 13:45 ↑ 14:00 ↑ 14:15 ↑ 14:30 ↓ 14:45 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 13:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T13:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 13:50:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
13:20:00
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.494 +0.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ag9d6j7EwBNgsjr1wJAQ5kqR
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 13:20:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 13:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.7%
Down 50.3%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000038 sigma=0.001631 score=-0.1005 p_up=0.4970

Commitment hash
89126dca6e8acf00c3c71aa48cb4a9a694f2c81ba7c215badad3b6e876a77df0
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
13:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.495 +0.5% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_zq7L80nkoMp4ieglDEjaK1Zl
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 13:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 13:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.76%
Down 50.24%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.1005 edge=-0.0030 sigma_short=0.001263 sigma_long=0.001878 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4976

Commitment hash
a9a5436fe8e30c37a7d5a3b365bde617dc4a6c2ed0d8b0c984c7206501679eae
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
13:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.547 -4.7% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_dnazAerPwl9PcmQaVb97G5lM
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 13:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 13:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.31%
Down 47.69%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63643.2555 sigma=152.2483 z=-1.0200 p_up=0.5231

Commitment hash
e00385698c8db677ef53ab3a362ee0edd1bfb5611168f153d645eb86ca96abd6