Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T12:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 12:45 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 13:05 UTC
Open price
$63,430.80
Close price
$63,465.51

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63430.800000 and closed at 63465.510000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up52%
48%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+1.5
Opens
Jun 12 · 12:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 12:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 13:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 12:00 ↓ 12:15 ↓ 12:30 ↓ 12:45 ↑ — now 13:00 ↑ 13:15 ↓ 13:30 ↓ 13:45 ↑ 14:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 13:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T12:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 13:05:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
12:35:00
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.463 +3.7% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_KNxe1m9koa6GCyPLwW628Xz0
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 12:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 12:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.9%
Down 48.1%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000334 sigma=0.001941 score=0.7494 p_up=0.5190

Commitment hash
3e4421a6e115477b5a0189708619083dd3044ff71e793352f5a5ee01571e6a01
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
12:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.469 +3.1% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_zKd58baJDbpLiaKEwy92enrk
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 12:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 12:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.57%
Down 48.43%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63597.4070 sigma=231.0334 z=-0.5809 p_up=0.5157

Commitment hash
837d9eabc659a6c1feef29478abd6b50005906ecaf1158a4cb9266b7a6695ce6
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
12:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.479 +2.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_apB6lzPrV3mgtl3xoXAeKd4v
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 12:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 12:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.05%
Down 48.95%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.7494 edge=0.0190 sigma_short=0.001451 sigma_long=0.001898 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5105

Commitment hash
82f16fc7130c5b7232fb431dc8cde121aa614f08279ef472845f8ae7bc626042