Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T12:15:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 12:15 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 12:35 UTC
Open price
$63,634.97
Close price
$63,463.19

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63634.970000 and closed at 63463.190000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+1.0
Opens
Jun 12 · 12:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 12:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 12:35 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 11:30 ↓ 11:45 ↓ 12:00 ↓ 12:15 ↓ — now 12:30 ↓ 12:45 ↑ 13:00 ↑ 13:15 ↓ 13:30 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 12:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T12:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 12:35:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
12:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.462 +3.8% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_Gl39jP8konj6s7NOoOq1ve6N
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 12:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 12:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.06%
Down 51.94%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63543.1840 sigma=290.5091 z=0.7670 p_up=0.4806

Commitment hash
f9e8c60118fff384a2659e1a11c01a466554164a50733214d3f979137bbbfbfd
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
12:05:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.546 -4.6% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ElAm4R7KDW3EFK0nDWZjJOYy
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 12:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 12:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.23%
Down 47.77%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=1.6661 edge=0.0279 sigma_short=0.001396 sigma_long=0.001930 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5223

Commitment hash
a9b980d4834f51d3bb5bd97bf8051e2cd70720e60200ec85f3badc7632c167eb
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
12:05:00
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.557 -5.7% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_j65YM2E8odpriGK3oPrz3bWe
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 12:05:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 12:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.79%
Down 47.21%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000650 sigma=0.001701 score=1.6661 p_up=0.5279

Commitment hash
095fd7fd6ae5cdbb2e211bbf46a0596985dce32c8b7102c2ba70bd13a2e351cf