Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T11:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 11:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 11:50 UTC
Open price
$63,828.00
Close price
$63,801.73

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63828.000000 and closed at 63801.730000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.5
Opens
Jun 12 · 11:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 11:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 11:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 10:45 ↑ 11:00 ↑ 11:15 ↓ 11:30 ↓ — now 11:45 ↓ 12:00 ↓ 12:15 ↓ 12:30 ↓ 12:45 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 11:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T11:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 11:50:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
11:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.450 +5.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_7B6ErGaLD5OgTyEdw5ylJzve
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 11:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 11:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.45%
Down 52.55%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63426.1240 sigma=321.7746 z=1.2593 p_up=0.4745

Commitment hash
143f788a8b499e472c641f86172c4734da0ad3fd1537702ab539bd4d38adb520
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
11:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.529 -2.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_rQLBEm5WoP72HnZXD9za01Y4
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 11:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 11:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.41%
Down 48.59%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=1.2820 edge=0.0257 sigma_short=0.001686 sigma_long=0.001960 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5141

Commitment hash
cbb78f58a4599c9e9de3a3fef44e35c85d129bc36e3b62c4f028f964ea30b9fe
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
11:20:00
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.553 -5.3% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_WzKkexj7we4xS8j0opr9mNPa
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 11:20:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 11:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.57%
Down 47.43%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000565 sigma=0.001920 score=1.2820 p_up=0.5257

Commitment hash
1fa846f5b143e7892cc57dc3ed9609c5e87f498ed74c7fadd969b6d38eb0fbae