Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T11:15:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 11:15 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 11:35 UTC
Open price
$63,831.35
Close price
$63,828.00

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63831.350000 and closed at 63828.000000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 12 · 11:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 11:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 11:35 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 10:30 ↑ 10:45 ↑ 11:00 ↑ 11:15 ↓ — now 11:30 ↓ 11:45 ↓ 12:00 ↓ 12:15 ↓ 12:30 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 11:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T11:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 11:35:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
11:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.456 +4.4% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_0ZYdGLNvozOETgJMw4nX59rO
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 11:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 11:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.74%
Down 52.26%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63399.7740 sigma=308.8294 z=0.9787 p_up=0.4774

Commitment hash
17babef63a76af09be30e7256fc78dfd1a359ceea6e303337c04d6ffbf311120
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
11:05:15
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.521 -2.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_g7xznkbOwq29cxMqVmELRlWQ
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 11:05:15 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 11:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.02%
Down 48.98%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.7187 edge=0.0185 sigma_short=0.001819 sigma_long=0.001980 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5102

Commitment hash
3eb93a8a84b35160d1b59985b7ea6f65cd55cd394ad32cc556b8ff7f0654a850
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
11:05:00
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.538 -3.8% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ElAm4R7KDW3EFW3nDWZjJOYy
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 11:05:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 11:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.85%
Down 48.15%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000330 sigma=0.001999 score=0.7187 p_up=0.5185

Commitment hash
70c1bf31bedcc955a1b05b086afd844cd583cd096383f8c95e1d88e1a5bab591