Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T10:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 10:30 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 10:50 UTC
Open price
$63,618.82
Close price
$63,684.00

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63618.820000 and closed at 63684.000000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.1
Opens
Jun 12 · 10:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 10:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 10:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 09:45 ↓ 10:00 ↑ 10:15 ↓ 10:30 ↑ — now 10:45 ↑ 11:00 ↑ 11:15 ↓ 11:30 ↓ 11:45 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 10:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T10:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 10:50:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
10:20:00
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.472 +2.8% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_rQLBEm5WoP72HnXXD9za01Y4
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 10:20:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 10:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.44%
Down 48.56%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000236 sigma=0.001961 score=0.5244 p_up=0.5144

Commitment hash
d683523e82cc1f0e0f8f970b339ca87e1a2113ff86609b4a279d7ac82ec5953d
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
10:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.484 +1.6% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_kB1Mx3X5o4zgCqJRV4nQbZN0
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 10:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 10:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.79%
Down 49.21%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.5244 edge=0.0144 sigma_short=0.001952 sigma_long=0.001961 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5079

Commitment hash
4a04866dc7c22419cd851998f813f81f96e5b06f3f9ea7bdefefc2d76454829e
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
10:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.555 -5.5% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_BE2kXa7Qo6ngH57Joy18Alen
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 10:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 10:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.33%
Down 52.67%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63361.7845 sigma=288.7772 z=1.4205 p_up=0.4733

Commitment hash
cfd38bd4956452d8e4f0b3a586aa5260634bf9f80886313d4234744874b664ac