Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T09:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 09:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 10:05 UTC
Open price
$63,888.81
Close price
$63,752.93

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63888.810000 and closed at 63752.930000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.8
Opens
Jun 12 · 09:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 09:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 10:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 09:00 ↑ 09:15 ↑ 09:30 ↑ 09:45 ↓ — now 10:00 ↑ 10:15 ↓ 10:30 ↑ 10:45 ↑ 11:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 10:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T09:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 10:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
09:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.445 +5.5% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_673nmr8ZwrGOh495V1ePEqxB
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 09:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 09:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.19%
Down 52.81%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63334.1435 sigma=255.2664 z=1.7147 p_up=0.4719

Commitment hash
46043649705e7b71d5a3e1e7956db6f0acb70b7c9987cb6ff13aaf9633f47a0e
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
09:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.503 -0.3% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_PG178AgpDReXu4byVeYNrJRd
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 09:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 09:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.14%
Down 49.86%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.0868 edge=0.0026 sigma_short=0.001670 sigma_long=0.002025 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5014

Commitment hash
20e58b3f5f3e070eecd288ffef6330af04c5acace57821e7b6efafea50099e28
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
09:35:00
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.505 -0.5% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_zgjx25nXwLnpHdjmDOd0yZq1
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 09:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 09:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.26%
Down 49.74%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000042 sigma=0.002097 score=0.0868 p_up=0.5026

Commitment hash
6878e3b783e0a4ee51370a3c59fd80fae01ad71417f3fa441f431a86a0e8888b