Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T11:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 11:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 11:20 UTC
Open price
$63,702.01
Close price
$63,831.35

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63702.010000 and closed at 63831.350000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.1
Opens
Jun 12 · 10:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 11:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 11:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 10:15 ↓ 10:30 ↑ 10:45 ↑ 11:00 ↑ — now 11:15 ↓ 11:30 ↓ 11:45 ↓ 12:00 ↓ 12:15 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 11:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T11:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 11:20:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
10:50:00
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.469 +3.1% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_MLpmeG97DG45SxE7olrWdgjb
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 10:50:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 11:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.58%
Down 48.42%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000270 sigma=0.002016 score=0.5836 p_up=0.5158

Commitment hash
362a8880cbde36e68e71d8bf7f1d800c83774b4c2e11173ffc279615539aec75
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
10:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.483 +1.7% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_j65YM2E8odpriZO3oPrz3bWe
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 10:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 11:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.87%
Down 49.13%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.5836 edge=0.0158 sigma_short=0.002077 sigma_long=0.001980 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5087

Commitment hash
6d62d3ee84559d34d3d5058b63ce500d8389a3f5cf1e31104084d87e26130ac0
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
10:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.547 -4.7% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_ax15qGLZwk7ZHjvxwrO7n9zR
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 10:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 11:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.71%
Down 52.29%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63382.5835 sigma=300.9969 z=1.0014 p_up=0.4771

Commitment hash
32b84e4f20ddbb3ec103895456ca2139d5899ac7ac5a1b3ac0d9503282f916eb