Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T12:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 12:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 12:20 UTC
Open price
$63,766.01
Close price
$63,634.98

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63766.010000 and closed at 63634.980000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.7
Opens
Jun 12 · 11:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 12:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 12:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 11:15 ↓ 11:30 ↓ 11:45 ↓ 12:00 ↓ — now 12:15 ↓ 12:30 ↓ 12:45 ↑ 13:00 ↑ 13:15 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 12:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T12:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 12:20:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
11:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.456 +4.4% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_A2vnyR7GwK96cApLDZbz3kL6
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 11:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 12:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.77%
Down 52.23%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63503.9060 sigma=310.1672 z=0.9602 p_up=0.4777

Commitment hash
75036b969535f2a76728c7c333cb007794997631aac0d4c580f7b1d0b4277c09
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
11:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.532 -3.2% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_MLpmeG97DG45Sn67olrWdgjb
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 11:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 12:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.56%
Down 48.44%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=1.7659 edge=0.0283 sigma_short=0.001681 sigma_long=0.001931 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5156

Commitment hash
594a6373c0260eb4325c186611663718e6c0a8b29ff9d9c3d17e2fa9774ef6b8
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
11:50:00
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.558 -5.8% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ZdYR0198o8ngH806VlXveKJ6
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 11:50:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 12:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.83%
Down 47.17%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000682 sigma=0.001683 score=1.7659 p_up=0.5283

Commitment hash
988e9bf9c79100a07047f5595565e157757827a838d67dcff2625165cc59e304