Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T19:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 19:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 19:50 UTC
Open price
$63,726.10
Close price
$63,640.55

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63726.100000 and closed at 63640.550000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.8
Opens
Jun 12 · 19:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 19:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 19:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 18:45 ↓ 19:00 ↑ 19:15 ↑ 19:30 ↓ — now 19:45 ↓ 20:00 ↑ 20:15 ↓ 20:30 ↓ 20:45 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 19:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T19:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 19:50:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
19:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.504 -0.4% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_k1qjB4eXVy9jc464VnpWL3gm
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 19:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 19:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.22%
Down 49.78%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.0928 edge=0.0028 sigma_short=0.001306 sigma_long=0.002593 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5022

Commitment hash
a728935a16820aa65697ff5f29041a400e854902c02ee28bb448b073fdb8d77b
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
19:20:00
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.506 -0.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_BzW1LX5PDjz5CJgODOKAlqGM
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 19:20:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 19:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.28%
Down 49.72%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000066 sigma=0.003116 score=0.0928 p_up=0.5028

Commitment hash
95b2195be9a9594a3ede30401b02f25f9bcbe0cfdcc6b5d44061d1f35eee0e4d
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
19:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.539 -3.9% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_26ObeAJmoYqvhBzLojMBk8Xp
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 19:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 19:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.91%
Down 48.09%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63851.4655 sigma=184.9046 z=-0.7527 p_up=0.5191

Commitment hash
83b576c71a8501580d5ad028b859fe9a89a1b62539069fbdab2689fcdf6c8ad1