Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T21:15:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 21:15 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 21:35 UTC
Open price
$63,600.01
Close price
$63,510.00

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63600.010000 and closed at 63510.000000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
53%
Difference from baseline
+0.6
Opens
Jun 12 · 21:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 21:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 21:35 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 20:30 ↓ 20:45 ↓ 21:00 ↑ 21:15 ↓ — now 21:30 ↑ 21:45 ↓ 22:00 ↑ 22:15 ↑ 22:30 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 21:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T21:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 21:35:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
21:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.449 +5.1% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_Gl39jP8konj6s7d6oOq1ve6N
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 21:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 21:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.38%
Down 52.62%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000341 sigma=0.001102 score=-1.3485 p_up=0.4738

Commitment hash
d8e5b55251df4f31b2b062d09fb365c25a01848a1709dd249f39f31608b9115a
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
21:05:02
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.459 +4.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_0ZYdGLNvozOETOvlw4nX59rO
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 21:05:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 21:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.9%
Down 52.1%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.3485 edge=-0.0262 sigma_short=0.001132 sigma_long=0.002500 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4790

Commitment hash
329560539603f3ff21dd2edcf1f7a26b3e4cafe8b28bf17315a8be417855fbd1
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
21:05:02
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.560 -6.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_ElAm4R7KDW3EFKAMDWZjJOYy
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 21:05:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 21:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.91%
Down 47.09%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63748.6640 sigma=144.9402 z=-2.0675 p_up=0.5291

Commitment hash
6de30d9efabb9b234e4d3991f028ddbac3fa0611654436e0d9bb576690682810