Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T22:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 22:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 22:20 UTC
Open price
$63,471.99
Close price
$63,510.68

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63471.990000 and closed at 63510.680000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.8
Opens
Jun 12 · 21:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 22:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 22:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 21:15 ↓ 21:30 ↑ 21:45 ↓ 22:00 ↑ — now 22:15 ↑ 22:30 ↓ 22:45 ↓ 23:00 ↓ 23:15 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 22:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T22:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 22:20:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
21:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.454 +4.6% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_ax15qGLZwk7ZHLjzwrO7n9zR
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 21:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 22:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.38%
Down 47.62%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63700.7470 sigma=150.4660 z=-1.0817 p_up=0.5238

Commitment hash
23eeed981d4fa303fe5c6fe2c263e32ff5e9d5267975d242b4f7ba989907979a
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
21:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.543 -4.3% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_j65YM2E8odpriGZ7oPrz3bWe
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 21:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 22:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.88%
Down 52.12%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.3987 edge=-0.0266 sigma_short=0.001175 sigma_long=0.002517 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4788

Commitment hash
ad95c7c1425ba669b70b24c0ad62b02a20a2d35836f0586cdfce51da1d2b6ae1
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
21:50:00
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.555 -5.5% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_MLpmeG97DG45SnxPolrWdgjb
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 21:50:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-12 22:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.34%
Down 52.66%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000367 sigma=0.001143 score=-1.3987 p_up=0.4734

Commitment hash
ddc792feb24aa2891027d27a3c63d0b2064d52b3994f5589c0bcedfb46bc15f4