Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T01:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 01:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 02:05 UTC
Open price
$64,564.99
Close price
$64,563.00

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 64564.990000 and closed at 64563.000000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.5
Opens
Jun 14 · 01:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 01:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 02:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 01:00 ↑ 01:15 ↑ 01:30 ↓ 01:45 ↓ — now 02:00 ↑ 02:15 ↓ 02:30 ↓ 02:45 ↓ 03:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 02:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T01:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 02:05:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
01:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.445 +5.5% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_zgjx25nXwLnpHmPADOd0yZq1
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 01:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 01:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.18%
Down 52.82%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=64454.5600 sigma=118.9165 z=1.7276 p_up=0.4718

Commitment hash
761448402421dd9cd5bf79b51f3b57c637ee258b4656259a89104b0082676ef3
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
01:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.539 -3.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_673nmr8ZwrGOh0QZV1ePEqxB
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 01:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 01:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.9%
Down 48.1%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=1.0771 edge=0.0238 sigma_short=0.000567 sigma_long=0.001367 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5190

Commitment hash
9edb652d2407c6c8c6c14639f68786766d43ae27036fc2a195e8ab4ce3c926ad
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
01:35:00
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.549 -4.9% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_zq7L80nkoMp4ie02DEjaK1Zl
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 01:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 01:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.38%
Down 47.62%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000331 sigma=0.001339 score=1.0771 p_up=0.5238

Commitment hash
93290289d6502844c41068c6e364072254a7c09deb347859fc466bf2e989a0cd