Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T05:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 05:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 06:05 UTC
Open price
$64,360.64
Close price
$64,338.00

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 64360.640000 and closed at 64338.000000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.5
Opens
Jun 14 · 05:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 05:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 06:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 05:00 ↑ 05:15 ↓ 05:30 ↑ 05:45 ↓ — now 06:00 ↑ 06:15 ↓ 06:30 ↓ 06:45 ↑ 07:00 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 06:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T05:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 06:05:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
05:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.452 +4.8% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_zgjx25nXwLnpHm6PDOd0yZq1
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 05:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 05:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.56%
Down 52.44%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000204 sigma=0.000779 score=-1.1407 p_up=0.4756

Commitment hash
d0db791b73fc6900251c2bf709923c73c6967887efd7f32b3b94246e39e8c0c4
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
05:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.462 +3.8% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_PG178AgpDReXuA7dVeYNrJRd
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 05:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 05:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.04%
Down 51.96%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.1407 edge=-0.0244 sigma_short=0.000721 sigma_long=0.001114 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4804

Commitment hash
4a15833128df6eea4a69318732dd221aa651563ca9ac38624a1fa04938efd7b2
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
05:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.560 -6.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_673nmr8ZwrGOh0NjV1ePEqxB
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 05:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 05:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.92%
Down 47.08%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=64507.1505 sigma=92.3616 z=-2.1744 p_up=0.5292

Commitment hash
58a6f67fdbae31a0d7a3432d1dc67f4c6ba9e52feb9533a86aa184663ffbff04