Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T11:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 11:30 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 11:50 UTC
Open price
$64,582.78
Close price
$64,612.31

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 64582.780000 and closed at 64612.310000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.1
Opens
Jun 14 · 11:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 11:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 11:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 10:45 ↓ 11:00 ↑ 11:15 ↑ 11:30 ↑ — now 11:45 ↓ 12:00 ↓ 12:15 ↓ 12:30 ↓ 12:45 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 11:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T11:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 11:50:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
11:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.474 +2.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_K0YXjLbzom6xCX0gw3qMl598
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 11:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 11:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.29%
Down 48.71%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000141 sigma=0.001329 score=0.4616 p_up=0.5129

Commitment hash
0562697dc8c6ab3861a45e0daf67f35a299b45df0f444a3f78e720662ef84244
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
11:20:02
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.486 +1.4% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_26ObeAJmoYqvh7R2ojMBk8Xp
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 11:20:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 11:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.71%
Down 49.29%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.4616 edge=0.0129 sigma_short=0.001305 sigma_long=0.001141 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5071

Commitment hash
7ebe006d2e359af96e3933666436f9a530e6086626e3cfdc1608e7520f757626
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
11:20:02
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.547 -4.7% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_BzW1LX5PDjz5C1mgDOKAlqGM
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 11:20:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 11:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.68%
Down 52.32%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=64441.7335 sigma=117.3318 z=1.0274 p_up=0.4768

Commitment hash
6e0d13182b3db76c522f1ac10acb4abc63bf3feb550959cdb7d58c6a0e4982f2