Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T12:15:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 12:15 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 12:35 UTC
Open price
$64,476.53
Close price
$64,467.25

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 64476.530000 and closed at 64467.250000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.6
Opens
Jun 14 · 12:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 12:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 12:35 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 11:30 ↑ 11:45 ↓ 12:00 ↓ 12:15 ↓ — now 12:30 ↓ 12:45 ↓ 13:00 ↑ 13:15 ↓ 13:30 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 12:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T12:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 12:35:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
12:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.469 +3.1% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_ElAm4R7KDW3EF8lEDWZjJOYy
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 12:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 12:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.43%
Down 51.57%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=64482.7860 sigma=108.5105 z=0.5826 p_up=0.4843

Commitment hash
7a7f96abefa49574f963ad2f3edc56730ec2f4df4bf614be39c739a7ad9f17c9
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
12:05:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.525 -2.5% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_0ZYdGLNvozOETd3Nw4nX59rO
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 12:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 12:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.24%
Down 48.76%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.9789 edge=0.0226 sigma_short=0.001275 sigma_long=0.001131 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5124

Commitment hash
3b919cfb3cf4487bc32d569636b7928902c984cc935c2cb981e254c29a75e1f7
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
12:05:00
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.546 -4.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_Gl39jP8konj6sm4XoOq1ve6N
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 12:05:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 12:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.26%
Down 47.74%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000269 sigma=0.001196 score=0.9789 p_up=0.5226

Commitment hash
a92de70f45e1ff2279607029e6e7ac73f3016db290159dbf2be69dd2c75d5e5f