Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T18:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 18:45 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 19:05 UTC
Open price
$63,777.32
Close price
$63,813.30

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63777.320000 and closed at 63813.300000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.5
Opens
Jun 14 · 18:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 18:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 19:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 18:00 ↓ 18:15 ↓ 18:30 ↑ 18:45 ↑ — now 19:00 ↓ 19:15 ↑ 19:30 ↓ 19:45 ↑ 20:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 19:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T18:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 19:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
18:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.446 +5.4% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_Gl39jP8konj6smvYoOq1ve6N
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 18:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 18:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.78%
Down 47.22%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=64026.9215 sigma=183.8402 z=-1.6310 p_up=0.5278

Commitment hash
595862a4f4d0327793ac23efa1ed6935678e3434045c8ef79c48ad6073a1c4e9
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
18:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.531 -3.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ElAm4R7KDW3EF8WpDWZjJOYy
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 18:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 18:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.46%
Down 51.54%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.6780 edge=-0.0280 sigma_short=0.001278 sigma_long=0.001268 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4846

Commitment hash
8754eec1de2d4d8c0af7aeaad50e865e7ff4355dca8dab1cd8dc4cc1677a5dca
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
18:35:00
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.558 -5.8% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_j65YM2E8odpri4ZxoPrz3bWe
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 18:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 18:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.2%
Down 52.8%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000527 sigma=0.001368 score=-1.6780 p_up=0.4720

Commitment hash
b837a239c9162e8692699a7bf247d8c26131c50710b07ca34ee8c8ac258cc6a6