Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T19:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 19:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 19:50 UTC
Open price
$63,797.56
Close price
$63,760.95

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63797.560000 and closed at 63760.950000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.4
Opens
Jun 14 · 19:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 19:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 19:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 18:45 ↑ 19:00 ↓ 19:15 ↑ 19:30 ↓ — now 19:45 ↑ 20:00 ↑ 20:15 ↑ 20:30 ↑ 20:45 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 19:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T19:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 19:50:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
19:20:00
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.456 +4.4% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ag9d6j7EwBNgsbjvwJAQ5kqR
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 19:20:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 19:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.74%
Down 52.26%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000302 sigma=0.001339 score=-0.9838 p_up=0.4774

Commitment hash
bc39e84eb3200a36acaed9c10ef4c6ab9ff3fc361175eb23499d8f26f059c550
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
19:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.475 +2.5% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_zq7L80nkoMp4iXePDEjaK1Zl
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 19:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 19:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.75%
Down 51.25%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.9838 edge=-0.0226 sigma_short=0.001193 sigma_long=0.001285 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4875

Commitment hash
8d7394634404b5db5e9a1c31dca7507d549b6fc0ba2198d7160b497e27cb8094
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
19:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.548 -4.8% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_dnazAerPwl9PcKmXVb97G5lM
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 19:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 19:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.36%
Down 47.64%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63946.2775 sigma=146.5107 z=-1.0611 p_up=0.5236

Commitment hash
54c135ecaac1ad1eb289f90cb6432002c73f72873f87c451c8912de08761b146