Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T20:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 20:30 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 20:50 UTC
Open price
$63,923.99
Close price
$64,044.71

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 63923.990000 and closed at 64044.710000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.7
Opens
Jun 14 · 20:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 20:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 20:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 19:45 ↑ 20:00 ↑ 20:15 ↑ 20:30 ↑ — now 20:45 ↓ 21:00 ↑ 21:15 ↑ 21:30 ↑ 21:45 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 20:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T20:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 20:50:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
20:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.470 +3.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_k1qjB4eXVy9jc33kVnpWL3gm
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 20:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 20:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.53%
Down 48.47%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63896.1030 sigma=141.9745 z=-0.5643 p_up=0.5153

Commitment hash
48935dfe4eebfa0bd0a15fd2c9c5c755c836e4366d5501d0ef1042402a975ea2
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
20:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.534 -3.4% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ag9d6j7EwBNgsbbvwJAQ5kqR
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 20:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 20:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.33%
Down 51.67%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.8555 edge=-0.0208 sigma_short=0.000699 sigma_long=0.001146 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4833

Commitment hash
8e6b8a3fd9aecb8ad89bf974d94287a43580025090a5028afc0fc3b7f0660524
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
20:20:00
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.543 -4.3% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_26ObeAJmoYqvh77YojMBk8Xp
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 20:20:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 20:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.92%
Down 52.08%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000200 sigma=0.001021 score=-0.8555 p_up=0.4792

Commitment hash
87648872742a543193648d1fa4f2eee2b36a8ee373ebc601351dfd840fa0346b