Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T21:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 21:45 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 22:05 UTC
Open price
$65,270.67
Close price
$65,311.59

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65270.670000 and closed at 65311.590000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.1
Opens
Jun 14 · 21:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 21:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 22:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 21:00 ↑ 21:15 ↑ 21:30 ↑ 21:45 ↑ — now 22:00 ↓ 22:15 ↑ 22:30 ↑ 22:45 ↓ 23:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 22:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T21:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 22:05:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
21:35:00
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.460 +4.0% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_j2yMmAnQo01girO4w1W4pqGx
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 21:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 21:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.05%
Down 47.95%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000502 sigma=0.002627 score=0.8330 p_up=0.5205

Commitment hash
8bf8daf15dcb6141bdba43046b573320df156f5e3319e7b700dbbdf417a929d1
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
21:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.486 +1.4% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_l4L0eAk2wAAgTQdAwg3aqryB
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 21:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 21:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.72%
Down 49.28%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.8330 edge=0.0205 sigma_short=0.003099 sigma_long=0.002058 w=0.3500 p_up=0.5072

Commitment hash
3e2c2dd4c22347b1806fe2a50e80258651e08efc83933a153a18d26cfd18607d
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
21:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.562 -6.2% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_Q6El9GNLw7xgsYmqVRbZJ37v
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 21:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 21:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.0%
Down 53.0%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63920.7950 sigma=232.0948 z=3.6803 p_up=0.4700

Commitment hash
e20bc6c9ccfff0a6d44f1552a5977a6bd1bddc4b783dcbb37f3abb7aa70d1d89