Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T23:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 23:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 23:20 UTC
Open price
$65,426.78
Close price
$65,562.00

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65426.780000 and closed at 65562.000000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.4
Opens
Jun 14 · 22:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 23:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 23:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 22:15 ↑ 22:30 ↑ 22:45 ↓ 23:00 ↑ — now 23:15 ↑ 23:30 ↓ 23:45 ↑ 00:00 ↑ 00:15 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 23:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 23:20:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
22:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.443 +5.7% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_zq7L80nkoMp4iX8YDEjaK1Zl
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 22:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 23:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.91%
Down 47.09%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.001415 sigma=0.002950 score=2.0911 p_up=0.5291

Commitment hash
876279e022ca2bb758f76027ac1b0e6ba69218e79d713ecf04c8cfaae3ab53c3
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
22:50:02
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.480 +2.0% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_673nmr8ZwrGOhxZ9V1ePEqxB
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 22:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 23:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.02%
Down 48.98%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=2.0911 edge=0.0291 sigma_short=0.003689 sigma_long=0.002454 w=0.3500 p_up=0.5102

Commitment hash
c5eb8fe50ac5c1e245da4a22e36385fa93b974c25f79ebccaffb7fc042ace1ad
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
22:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.559 -5.9% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_zgjx25nXwLnpHAL6DOd0yZq1
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 22:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 23:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.13%
Down 52.87%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=64249.5645 sigma=637.4584 z=1.9137 p_up=0.4713

Commitment hash
3a5110887fa028c83f8fbfeb59f72b5181a9d2a0310a266f4f56975aa8d50e17