Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T22:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 22:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 23:05 UTC
Open price
$65,469.44
Close price
$65,426.78

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65469.440000 and closed at 65426.780000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.3
Opens
Jun 14 · 22:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 22:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 23:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 22:00 ↓ 22:15 ↑ 22:30 ↑ 22:45 ↓ — now 23:00 ↑ 23:15 ↑ 23:30 ↓ 23:45 ↑ 00:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 23:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T22:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 23:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
22:35:00
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.445 +5.5% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_xpn3ZLedwX3YFPGzor79GXqN
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 22:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 22:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.16%
Down 52.84%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=64168.2770 sigma=577.5617 z=1.8145 p_up=0.4716

Commitment hash
5f9aae69c74b13d3a96838e9abcf3cd55eacdc444efeb24467124e41d771a0b2
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
22:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.520 -2.0% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_K0YXjLbzom6xCX3Yw3qMl598
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 22:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 22:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.97%
Down 49.03%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=1.6432 edge=0.0278 sigma_short=0.003721 sigma_long=0.002413 w=0.3500 p_up=0.5097

Commitment hash
4c5fb2ad3253d636f1f11137fd3a8f57dd7ac724fdb972581b339d3a7d058f21
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
22:35:00
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.557 -5.7% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_L5Xdpj9Zw2WguL86VzBAYvMJ
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 22:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 22:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.78%
Down 47.22%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.001120 sigma=0.002970 score=1.6432 p_up=0.5278

Commitment hash
f195716207a3c5f85ba1fc4b5166f85e09218b2bc45d8507bef5304d6a5fb51f