Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T21:15:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 21:15 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 21:35 UTC
Open price
$64,103.52
Close price
$64,774.97

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 64103.520000 and closed at 64774.970000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+1.2
Opens
Jun 14 · 21:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 21:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 21:35 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 20:30 ↑ 20:45 ↓ 21:00 ↑ 21:15 ↑ — now 21:30 ↑ 21:45 ↑ 22:00 ↓ 22:15 ↑ 22:30 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 21:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T21:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 21:35:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
21:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.514 -1.4% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_W4QmKAe0wx4ASL44wrg8JY5Z
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 21:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 21:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.28%
Down 50.72%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.3083 edge=-0.0090 sigma_short=0.000816 sigma_long=0.001202 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4928

Commitment hash
6bcefec8f30f24f07830f417b6bb69c4c998e78a94cbb424467f3e18bcd63ee2
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
21:05:00
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.518 -1.8% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_40Q536YODN09HYPjwRWvqpr8
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 21:05:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 21:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.1%
Down 50.9%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000082 sigma=0.001154 score=-0.3083 p_up=0.4910

Commitment hash
a770353bf048bda75ce37950fbbc8dac298bb5a133db0a14da43577b42fbef33
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
21:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.543 -4.3% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_4BXNaeEbo16gCpJZwkOy0xjq
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 21:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 21:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.89%
Down 52.11%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63889.0475 sigma=136.9961 z=0.8730 p_up=0.4789

Commitment hash
ad600f179e8dc828b8b2343c71b208745cfa3d4e451deb4b3449273d5b8eeeaf