Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T04:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 04:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 05:05 UTC
Open price
$65,695.01
Close price
$65,644.01

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65695.010000 and closed at 65644.010000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.0
Opens
Jun 15 · 04:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 04:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 05:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 04:00 ↓ 04:15 ↑ 04:30 ↓ 04:45 ↓ — now 05:00 ↑ 05:15 ↑ 05:30 ↓ 05:45 ↑ 06:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 05:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T04:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 05:05:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
04:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.478 +2.2% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_40Q536YODN09HYL1wRWvqpr8
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 04:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 04:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.91%
Down 51.09%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=65668.2995 sigma=140.1032 z=0.3809 p_up=0.4891

Commitment hash
e88c1cbd3fd9afe0277aa09c14fd0071a2f02cf423caa9ffb2817d940fb30480
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
04:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.511 -1.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_4BXNaeEbo16gCp8rwkOy0xjq
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 04:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 04:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.53%
Down 49.47%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.2266 edge=0.0067 sigma_short=0.001985 sigma_long=0.002720 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5053

Commitment hash
3bdabcbecd2dc01ce59baae35332f3e44e92388116f90df8c77b49aaba477feb
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
04:35:00
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.513 -1.3% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_apB6lzPrV3mgtXr3oXAeKd4v
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 04:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 04:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.67%
Down 49.33%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000122 sigma=0.002347 score=0.2266 p_up=0.5067

Commitment hash
6bf74483db89a95e4911ec2f85ae49e279e684be42296cc3c91ae1971b5d7419