Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T05:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 05:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 05:20 UTC
Open price
$65,644.00
Close price
$65,686.00

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65644.000000 and closed at 65686.000000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
50%
Difference from baseline
+0.3
Opens
Jun 15 · 04:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 05:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 05:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 04:15 ↑ 04:30 ↓ 04:45 ↓ 05:00 ↑ — now 05:15 ↑ 05:30 ↓ 05:45 ↑ 06:00 ↑ 06:15 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 05:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T05:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 05:20:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
04:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.504 -0.4% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_K0YXjLbzom6xCXlOw3qMl598
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 04:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 05:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.81%
Down 50.19%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.0791 edge=-0.0024 sigma_short=0.001911 sigma_long=0.002726 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4981

Commitment hash
d0c531ae511dd12e871014996774fadd543d17e5a317974b9720fc8b89025aab
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
04:50:00
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.505 -0.5% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_L5Xdpj9Zw2WguLJjVzBAYvMJ
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 04:50:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 05:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.76%
Down 50.24%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000041 sigma=0.002269 score=-0.0791 p_up=0.4976

Commitment hash
23e7afc099d933874d3179a66c83606b4a10f517fa286533ac167aec33beb4f1
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
04:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.509 -0.9% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_xpn3ZLedwX3YFPZZor79GXqN
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 04:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 05:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.56%
Down 50.44%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=65674.5770 sigma=138.3351 z=0.1476 p_up=0.4956

Commitment hash
0bdb6e991c1466e452b61fc2571d3f82552a8a7c9efcdb3aedd201d72fdaa284