Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T09:15:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 09:15 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 09:35 UTC
Open price
$65,681.40
Close price
$65,644.17

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65681.400000 and closed at 65644.170000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.6
Opens
Jun 15 · 09:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 09:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 09:35 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 08:30 ↑ 08:45 ↓ 09:00 ↑ 09:15 ↓ — now 09:30 ↓ 09:45 ↑ 10:00 ↑ 10:15 10:30
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 09:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T09:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 09:35:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
09:05:00
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.492 +0.8% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_Gl39jP8konj6smpvoOq1ve6N
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 09:05:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 09:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.59%
Down 50.41%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000046 sigma=0.001439 score=-0.1380 p_up=0.4959

Commitment hash
c2bc7aae6d85994ec5ba7c2ecfecfed0b3781167fe31f450c7fef5ce22d0f2d6
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
09:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.495 +0.5% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_dnazAerPwl9PcKXPVb97G5lM
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 09:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 09:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.77%
Down 50.23%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.1380 edge=-0.0041 sigma_short=0.001557 sigma_long=0.001968 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4977

Commitment hash
107eaf9c0c2aa493ece4956ea2909b3a906d0cb6fa28d7ce363b0462b00b5cdf
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
09:05:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.551 -5.1% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_ElAm4R7KDW3EF8q8DWZjJOYy
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 09:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 09:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.48%
Down 47.52%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=65768.2865 sigma=90.3699 z=-1.1760 p_up=0.5248

Commitment hash
f9a6ec7a8373001806ba40d5989ec846ac859a2118cf5c6dca51270ea26ff937