Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T08:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 08:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 09:05 UTC
Open price
$65,768.00
Close price
$65,662.01

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65768.000000 and closed at 65662.010000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.1
Opens
Jun 15 · 08:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 08:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 09:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 08:00 ↑ 08:15 ↓ 08:30 ↑ 08:45 ↓ — now 09:00 ↑ 09:15 ↓ 09:30 ↓ 09:45 ↑ 10:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 09:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T08:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 09:05:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
08:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.471 +2.9% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_9EjpnQAKwO3OFbxQw5zX1eW6
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 08:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 08:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.54%
Down 51.46%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000186 sigma=0.001526 score=-0.5311 p_up=0.4854

Commitment hash
6ab0507bbc13480f3839b98dd0b44bf110a9bcfd7889e55adaea25c0e0ebe839
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
08:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.477 +2.3% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_Q6El9GNLw7xgsYJMVRbZJ37v
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 08:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 08:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.83%
Down 51.17%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.5311 edge=-0.0146 sigma_short=0.001468 sigma_long=0.002030 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4883

Commitment hash
788dce82bf63ba2bec8f8738c51cd69df5aa4208274a92b43458b439f1bea2bb
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
08:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.551 -5.1% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_j2yMmAnQo01girxAw1W4pqGx
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 08:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 08:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.47%
Down 47.53%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=65788.5410 sigma=97.1028 z=-1.1635 p_up=0.5247

Commitment hash
cf0abd40cda260fb210f299d4efdd88d75d02c0c8587f90e6922aa6dd712d280