Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T11:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 11:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 11:20 UTC
Open price
$65,917.37
Close price
$65,942.39

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65917.370000 and closed at 65942.390000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.5
Opens
Jun 15 · 10:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 11:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 11:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 10:15 ↓ 10:30 ↑ 10:45 ↑ 11:00 ↑ — now 11:15 ↑ 11:30 ↓ 11:45 12:00 12:15
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 11:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T11:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 11:20:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
10:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.505 -0.5% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_mYpKb1MNDpy4T2lno7Ak4L2e
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 10:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 11:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.74%
Down 50.26%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=65753.0040 sigma=103.7860 z=0.0867 p_up=0.4974

Commitment hash
4813ec9ceab4527c1a8f46dfde24b1a89b894b2ec7209a3eadd3f066aa40ec0d
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
10:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.512 -1.2% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_05Xg9GbYV9ygTG0PVRELWApQ
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 10:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 11:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.41%
Down 50.59%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.2504 edge=-0.0074 sigma_short=0.001116 sigma_long=0.001774 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4941

Commitment hash
c72210125d797a8b385e653f9302a890e2e39bbced3e22844d2d5f53ad2ef98d
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
10:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.515 -1.5% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ZrAQgKBlDJnJHXnAD3j6Wdq1
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 10:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 11:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.26%
Down 50.74%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000077 sigma=0.001337 score=-0.2504 p_up=0.4926

Commitment hash
79dc3b6f4bb5fb74798f880c7d3c1f300698485db5e0b1f9295214949b152374