Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-15T11:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 11:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 15 · 11:50 UTC
Open price
$66,258.95
Close price
$66,151.93

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66258.950000 and closed at 66151.930000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.9
Opens
Jun 15 · 11:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 15 · 11:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 15 · 11:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 10:45 ↑ 11:00 ↑ 11:15 ↑ 11:30 ↓ — now 11:45 ↑ 12:00 ↑ 12:15 ↓ 12:30 ↑ 12:45 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-15 11:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-15T11:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 15 · 11:50:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
11:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.446 +5.4% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_ag9d6j7EwBNgsbnbwJAQ5kqR
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 11:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 11:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.21%
Down 52.79%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=65758.5910 sigma=111.3312 z=1.6509 p_up=0.4721

Commitment hash
7bd092816a1263e3b8f6abb37a897416bdc92c58b5105db29ec455df58970f9a
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
11:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.500 0.0% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_dnazAerPwl9PcKjPVb97G5lM
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 11:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 11:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.0%
Down 50.0%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.0009 edge=0.0000 sigma_short=0.001215 sigma_long=0.001779 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5000

Commitment hash
73c1668e2e8d701973ce541406ed684c94de7a1dd9353d710269935264bf8588
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
11:20:00
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.500 0.0% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_k1qjB4eXVy9jc3qpVnpWL3gm
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 11:20:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-15 11:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.0%
Down 50.0%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000000 sigma=0.001431 score=0.0009 p_up=0.5000

Commitment hash
6f98852a7ad61b798d11146142a6166346b9306c91356d6d48242e3673468909