Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T00:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 00:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 00:20 UTC
Open price
$66,328.74
Close price
$66,391.97

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66328.740000 and closed at 66391.970000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.4
Opens
Jun 15 · 23:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 00:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 00:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 23:15 ↓ 23:30 ↑ 23:45 ↑ 00:00 ↑ — now 00:15 ↓ 00:30 ↑ 00:45 ↓ 01:00 ↑ 01:15 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 00:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T00:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 00:20:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
23:50:02
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.455 +4.5% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_0ZYdGLNvozOETdEjw4nX59rO
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 23:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 00:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.31%
Down 47.69%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66463.0530 sigma=189.9642 z=-1.0188 p_up=0.5231

Commitment hash
84e972afdf9cb40ccd79a4afdb434f4a6594469f5f922ffa6011add334245ab0
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 15
23:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.525 -2.5% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_g7xznkbOwq29c3mrVmELRlWQ
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 23:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 00:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.75%
Down 51.25%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.9970 edge=-0.0228 sigma_short=0.001395 sigma_long=0.001828 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4875

Commitment hash
d4cbb9a2fb8e030f2e2ee2f5f61078ea8d2f989648e308654c5dee58a6ed3545
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 15
23:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.547 -4.7% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ElAm4R7KDW3EF82gDWZjJOYy
Submitted Jun 15, 2026 · 23:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 00:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.72%
Down 52.28%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000393 sigma=0.001718 score=-0.9970 p_up=0.4772

Commitment hash
8ccc394b5a58e6f6ef50b7db3096b8ebc8018bb692ee48040616613e69646965