Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T01:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 01:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 01:50 UTC
Open price
$66,376.67
Close price
$66,359.22

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66376.670000 and closed at 66359.220000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.4
Opens
Jun 16 · 01:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 01:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 01:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 00:45 ↓ 01:00 ↑ 01:15 ↑ 01:30 ↓ — now 01:45 ↓ 02:00 ↓ 02:15 ↓ 02:30 ↑ 02:45 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 01:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T01:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 01:50:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
01:20:00
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.465 +3.5% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_l4L0eAk2wAAgTQ33wg3aqryB
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 01:20:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 01:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.2%
Down 51.8%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000232 sigma=0.001455 score=-0.6952 p_up=0.4820

Commitment hash
05a45f0b64a2ef2afa3b86d0a88a26baf1f833cc579f0e57976df307aacbb898
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
01:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.480 +2.0% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_G7zbNOMWVvp7iELkoE9P1vBd
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 01:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 01:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.01%
Down 50.99%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.6952 edge=-0.0180 sigma_short=0.001510 sigma_long=0.001903 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4901

Commitment hash
0bcfe2a31cff9e1eb5a44c64f766dd341ae990aa3b6e323509195759be4eb3b1
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
01:20:00
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.532 -3.2% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_904kZMgdDE6gC2e5oBnQaqEe
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 01:20:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 01:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.59%
Down 48.41%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66356.7215 sigma=121.6847 z=-0.5883 p_up=0.5159

Commitment hash
3463c0eac25e25d7ceb8b8917db44339821d92e39aa2fb86f4b66e7806e7000f