Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T01:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 01:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 02:05 UTC
Open price
$66,359.23
Close price
$66,346.52

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66359.230000 and closed at 66346.520000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+1.0
Opens
Jun 16 · 01:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 01:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 02:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 01:00 ↑ 01:15 ↑ 01:30 ↓ 01:45 ↓ — now 02:00 ↓ 02:15 ↓ 02:30 ↑ 02:45 ↓ 03:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 02:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T01:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 02:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
01:35:00
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.473 +2.7% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ZdYR0198o8ngH5eMVlXveKJ6
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 01:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 01:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.62%
Down 51.38%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000170 sigma=0.001496 score=-0.4967 p_up=0.4862

Commitment hash
faf28cb4fa791e9ca16888f73b50f7b2665af4f9b8e7a71a0ca6facd16900eda
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
01:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.484 +1.6% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_A2vnyR7GwK96cyqZDZbz3kL6
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 01:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 01:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.21%
Down 50.79%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66346.6550 sigma=110.8049 z=0.2708 p_up=0.4921

Commitment hash
53e09d66c1d961f03bd29acafb3de13b22c615e4f671e733a99352ffa653bbc3
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
01:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.485 +1.5% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_MLpmeG97DG45SYejolrWdgjb
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 01:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 01:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.24%
Down 50.76%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.4967 edge=-0.0138 sigma_short=0.001490 sigma_long=0.001915 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4924

Commitment hash
1566c476722c9566276d0b866c3c75cfb39783b80f5b69424a8767454131c1d4