Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T11:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 11:45 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 12:05 UTC
Open price
$66,403.18
Close price
$66,481.73

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66403.180000 and closed at 66481.730000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.6
Opens
Jun 16 · 11:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 11:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 12:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 11:00 ↓ 11:15 ↓ 11:30 ↓ 11:45 ↑ — now 12:00 ↑ 12:15 ↑ 12:30 ↓ 12:45 ↓ 13:00 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 12:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T11:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 12:05:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
11:35:00
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.478 +2.2% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_BlAyv3kzDQm0tRXrDWqReg9n
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 11:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 11:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.12%
Down 48.88%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66534.7020 sigma=147.4199 z=-0.3911 p_up=0.5112

Commitment hash
b8bd3f15b195e16b47202379f536f0dd1ab439bdb397f37bc9394c7ec5ad816d
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
11:35:00
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.490 +1.0% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_G7zbNOMWVvp7idYgoE9P1vBd
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 11:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 11:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.49%
Down 49.51%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000062 sigma=0.001656 score=0.1637 p_up=0.5049

Commitment hash
8c51d8b3626e4354249dcc41ad0eb9ad85173e07351f440cb9968cec8c4f6db3
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
11:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.495 +0.5% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ZdYR0198o8ngHAN8VlXveKJ6
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 11:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 11:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.27%
Down 49.73%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.1637 edge=0.0049 sigma_short=0.001493 sigma_long=0.001858 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5027

Commitment hash
a037ef0e6ea41de4e49e284caa1ace11ad691674557c4686cc2c289dda3df6e5